David Davis vs. Kelvin MacKenzie

Most of the media appear to be portraying David Davis's decision to resign as a problem for the Conservatives -- and as good news for Gordon Brown. I'm not so sure. Take this morning's news that the former Sun editor Kelvin MacKenzie will be backed by The Sun and Rupert Murdoch as his main opponent. It is pretty dismal for Brown when his flagship policy can only find Murdoch to support it. In reality, Brown is in such a deep hole now he needs a core vote strategy. He needs to stabalise his position before he can claw back support - there is no point chasing after Daily Mail readers because they aren't even listening to him. The Davis vs MacKenzie by-election will demoralise and depress Labour supporters. Why, they will ask themselves, should they support a reactionary loser. It will just prompt more defections to the Lib Dems, perhaps putting them ahead of Labour in the polls. Once that happens, Brown is in freefall.