How To Re-Invent The City

In Money Week this week, I've been writing about how the City will need to re-invent itself. Here's a taster....


It has been a terrible year for the City of London. Half the British banking system has been nationalised, and the other half doesn’t look safe yet. The non-domicile tax rules that made it the magnet for the brightest young financiers from around Europe have been curbed. There are tough new rules on the way bankers are paid being proposed by the Financial Services Authority.
And now – presumably on the principle that you might as well finish a job once you have started it – the Government has just lifted the top rate of tax to 50%. It would have been hard to think of a more deadly final nail to hammer into an already wounded financial centre.
In response the City is going to have to re-invent itself all over again. For the last twenty years, it has flourished as a lightly-regulated, lightly-taxed global financial centre – Monaco without the yachts. That has now been shot to pieces. The City has re-invented itself several times in the past, and can no doubt do so again. It can find niches in stockbroking and financial re-structuring, as well as building on the UK’s historic ties with rising economic powers such as India. But the challenges are going to be immense – and there can be no certainty that the City will be able to rise to them.
There is no point in underestimating the gravity of the threat the City now faces. Its standing in the world has taken a terrible series of blows.
Whatever the Government may pretend, there UK has suffered more damage from the credit crunch than any other major economy. No other nation has seen runs on banks such as were witnessed at Northern Rock, nor has there been any calamity on the scale of the Royal Bank of Scotland.
The FSA Chairman Adair Turner has promised a tough new regime of regulation, stating bluntly “there’ll be fewer people earning less money”. No doubt that is true, but it suggests a regime that will be heavy-handed and intrusive.
Meanwhile, the non-doms who made London a magnet for ambitious young financiers will now have to pay a £30,000 annual charge, and, more worryingly, answer a lot of detailed questions. And now, a 50% top rate of tax, which will apply to any earnings from working at London-based bank or hedge fund regardless of whether you are British or not.
That will be the fourth highest top rate of tax in the developed world (Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands are higher, in case you are wondering where you really don’t want to move to). It is simply inconceivable that ten of thousands of clever, ambitious young bankers, motivated principally by money, are going to up sticks and move to one of the highest-tax regimes in the world.
For the UK, that matters. In the 2007-09 financial year, the City provided 11% of total income tax payments, and 15% of corporation tax payments, making a total of £42 billion. Already that is reckoned to have at least halved, responsible by itself for much of the red ink splattered across the Government’s books. The British economy needs a thriving financial centre. It is one of the few things we are really good at.
But the City is going to have to re-invent itself. True, it is good at that: the Square Mile has scripted more triumphs over adversity than a Hollywood screenwriter. In the 1960s and 1970s, it created the offshore Eurodollar market, recycling dollars from the oil rich states to the rest of the world. In the wake of Big Bang, in 1986, it re-created itself as a global hub for largely foreign-owned banks. A combination of the non-dom rule, what in retrospect was excessively light regulation, and the traditional entrepreneurial spirits of its workforce, allowed it to see off challenges from Paris and Frankfurt to become the key European finance centre. Indeed, in the last three years, it was starting to pull ahead of New York as the global centre for the money markets.
All that is in the past. The foreigners will head back home. The American and European banks will be slimming down their operations. And the British banks will be shadows of their former selves.
There are opportunities out there.
Stockbroking, which was once one of the City’s core professions, is about to make a comeback. The credit crunch has left thousands of companies with shattered balance sheets. They will need to swap a lot of debt for equity, and that is going to mean patiently talking to shareholders and persuading them the business is worth backing. That is precisely the job stockbrokers used to do – and there will be a demand for them again.
Next, the government debt markets will be swilling with paper. The British government will soon be selling £200 billion of debt a year, and other governments will be placing similar amounts. The competition for capital will be intense. Any expertise in placing that – and the City has plenty – is going to be in demand.
Thirdly, the City is already the world’s major currency trading centre. The euro has survived the credit crunch so far, but whether countries such as Spain, Italy and Ireland can stand the pain of the recession without devaluing their currency remains to be seen. Splitting up the single currency could be a bonanza.
Lastly, the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China are going to keep growing in importance. The City has always been the most international financial centre. It has already established itself as a bridge between Russia and the rest of the world. And it can do the same for India as well.
Even so, the City will be a far more English financial centre for a decade or more to come. It will be smaller, and less profitable. And it will be a long time before it claws back the prominence of the middle half of this decade.