SABEW Award

My Bloomberg column has been awarded a prize for best opinion writer by the Society of American Business Writers and Editors.

Those Green Shoots....

The phrase 'green shoots' is starting to get on my nerves (almost as much as 'the current climate'). Hence my column for Bloomberg today, which you can also read in The Times, or over at Real Clear Markets.

A Tax Catastrophe For The City

Judging by the amount of e-mail I had today for my Bloomberg column on the new 50% top-rate of tax for the UK, it really is going to be a catastrophy for the City. Dominic Lawson has written a good piece for The Independent about it as well. And yet no one in the Government appears to care.

Respect to FT Alphaville

Over at FT Alphaville they are linking to my Bloomberg column today about the big mnistakes the UK economy is making, and how it is turning itself into the New France. They headlined the link, 'Welcome to Frengland'. I wish I'd thought of that.

Goldman Sachs's and the Devil Blog

I did a column for Bloomberg on Monday about Goldman's Sach's problems with a blog called Goldmansachs666. You can read it here, and also see the discussion I had about it on Bloomberg TV here. The blog itself seemed a bit put out, which wasn't what I was expecting, since I was defending it's right to exist. I suspect banks are going to have a hard time dealing with the kind of populist public scrutiny they are now gojng to come in for. Goldman actually does a better job of PR than most. But thet still have a lot to learn.

Bankers Wives

There was a rather po-faced piece in The Sunday Times at the weekend about divorces among bankers by Minette Marrin. On Bloomberg today, I've looked at the same story from a different angle: why should bankers wives walk away with fortunes. After all, they did even less to deserve the money than the bankers.

The Business School Scam

On Bloomberg today I've been writing about Business Schools and the role they played in creating the credit crunch. It is probably harsh to blame them completely. But, as one person who e-mailed me pointed out, their fees and exclusivity created the bubble in which much of the business world has lived for the past decade. I mean, it does seem extraordinary that Andy Hornby, formerly CEO of HBOS, could have an MBA from Harvard and not realise there was something wrong with the way the bank was being run.

The Closure of Papers

At the start of the year, I wrote a column of prediction for 2009 for Bloomberg. One was that a major newspaper would make the switch to web-only publishing. So I was interested to see that the Seattle-Post Intelligencer is making precisely that switch. It won't be the last. It is hard to see many papers surviving in their current form. As a journalist, I can see the sadness in that. But the sooner journalism moves into the new age the better. There aren't enough profitable publishers at the moment - and profits won't return until the switch to the new technology is complete.

Bankers Aand Their Bonuses

On Bloomberg this week, I have been writing about banking bonuses. What strikes me as interesting is how reluctant people are in that world to recognise that the world has changed. I suspect there is going to be a long slow period of adjustment where they realise that in the rest of the world you don't get a huge bonus just for doing your job and that when your company is bust you are lucky to get paid at all.

Meeting Jeffrey Archer

I interviewed Jeffrey Archer last week for Bloomberg, and also talked to him a bit about my own book. Very kindly he's wished me well on his own blog. He recalls the publication of his own first book, and how they struggled to make sure the first 3,500 sold. I certainly know how that feels. I found Archer charming. There's an image of him as a hack writer, but that certainly doesn't survive a conversation with him - he cares passionately about his books, and that comes through when you read them.

The Private Equity Bust

The Deal.com is taking me to task over a column I wrote for Bloomberg yesterday about private equity. They miss a few points, however. It doesn't matter if the firms themselves are not highly leveraged: the businesses they own certainly are. Next, they seem to think they are "the least of the economy's problems". But in the UK for example private equity controlled companies employ millions of people and the same is true in the US. If they start to go under, isn't that a problem?

Sport and the Free Market

On Bloomberg today I've been writing about how every flimsy businessman usessport as a vehicle to legitimise themselves, a piece that was also picked up by The Times. Sir Allen Stanford is only the latest example. It seems to happen all the time. Sport is a challenge to people who, like myself, broadly believe in free markets. Football is the most glaring example - it is hard not to believe that the Premier League has been killed by the influx of money, since, although skill levels are higher, there isn't much meaningful competition. Indeed, with the demise of Chelsea, it doesn't look as if anyone can challenge Manchester United for the title for a long time, and there is not much fun in that. I suspect salary caps such as they have in American football may be the answer, together with limits on foreign players - but it is not going to be easy to achive.

Banking Bonuses

I don't think the scale of the contraction in the banking industry has started to sink in yet. In my Bloomberg column this week, I was speculating that pay in financial services is likely to fall around 50% to get back to long-term sustainable levels. It could be further, however. A whole generation as grown up assuming that banking is the place to make money and that isn't going to be true for a long time.

Die Welt

It's not often I get a by-line in Die Welt, but they ran my Bloomberg column on bankers.

The Hedge Fund Catastrophe

FT Alphaville is one of my favorite financial sites - it is about the first thing I log into when I turn on my computer - so I was pleased to see they ran my Bloomberg column on hedge funds today. Likewise The Times. A lot of response to the basic argument, which was that by stopping their investors from taking their money out, the funds were doing a lot of damage to their reputation. One reader pointed out that it was much the same as the ban on short-selling last year - which, of course, the hedge funds objected to loudly. Another pointed out that it was similar to emerging markets closing up for a few days - such as Malaysia, Thailand, or more recently Russia. True enough. The funds are guilty of gross hypocrisy. There were already having a rough time. But I suspect this kind of crass response means they are just about finished.

...And on Wall Street Blips

I hadn't come across Wall Street Blips before but it looks like a useful site that pulls togeher the most read, commented on financial commentary. So I was pleased to see my Bloomberg predictions column featuring on its top list. Likewise, on Infectious Greed, which is already one of my favourite sites.

Predictions in...China

I was pleased to see my Bloomberg column of new year predictions re-printed in the China Post. I'm not sure if I've been in that paper before.

The Sterling Crisis

The catastrophe of Gordon Brown's response to the recession is becoming clearer by the day. By boosting public spending, he has shattered international confidence in the UK economy, and the predictable result has been a flight from sterling. There is a strange idea around that this is somehow good for the British economy. However, it is looking more like Robert Mugabe economics - let's call it Mugabenomics - every day. Printing money and devaluing the currency isn't the answer. Just take a look at what is happening to the Hugh Street. A whole string of retailers are going out of business - Woolworths, Whittards, Officer's Club, Adams - because most of the stuff they sell is imported. It's soaring in price, but they can't increase what they charge, so they are shutting down. The damage that does to the economy far outweighs any boost from the fiscal stimulus. In my Bloomberg column today, one of my predictions for 2009 is that Britain will have to call in the IMF - and that is looking more and more accurate all the time.

The Rich Are Useless With Money

Plenty of pick-up for my Bloomberg column this morning on why the rich are so useless with their money. It is reproduced by The Times and Real Clear Markets.

Sorry About That Hedge Fund

Both the Wall Street Journal and The Times are running my Bloomberg column about how hedge funds need a better class of excuse. Ypu can read the original here. I got a lot of feedback on that piece, mixed as usual, but mostly positive. Quite a few hedge fund managers e-mailed me. I suspect they know the industry is in trouble because the performance all through the credit crunch just hasn't been good enough.